Leading Through Uncertainty: How to Move Forward When the Future is Unclear
As consultants, we are responsible for continually learning emerging technologies so that we, in turn, can guide our clients through the process of adopting them effectively. As technology has shifted through the years, creating a roadmap for clients was fairly straightforward, because it usually centered around deploying a new application. With the advent of AI, the destination is far less defined, since the fundamental shift is not about deploying a singular technology but changing fundamentally how we think about work.
While the future is always inherently unknown, this feels like a period of time fraught with special risk, as many people wonder about the future of their livelihoods, (specifically), and the future of humanity, (generally). The future feels less like a road heading in a specific direction, and more like a bank of fog obscuring our path, allowing us only to see a few feet ahead of us at a time.
Regardless of this seismic shift, we still feel our duty is to partner with our clients, to help them know how to put one foot in front of the other, and so move forward for the benefit of themselves, their employees, and their communities.
This month, we’ll dive into some principles that can help move things forward, even when the destination is not clear. This is based on some great books and articles that we will recommend you consider adding to your own reading list.
Principal One: Focus on Curiosity, Not Outcomes, in the Short Term
Conventional wisdom, and most corporate strategic planning, is based on creating a long-term plan and working backwards toward a mid-term and short-term plan, then mapping out steps to achieve the defined objectives. While the absence of a plan is usually the result of an absence of direction, making a plan can be difficult when the long-term future is murky.
Another way to look at strategic planning is to focus on creating a culture of curiosity. Many employees are discouraged because they have been tasked with using AI but given little guidance on how to use it. They feel like managers are expecting more out of them than ever before, without the time required to experiment and play around with the tools they are given.
To achieve productivity gains, users need to be rewarded for taking the time to learn a new way of doing things. This can mean a short-term loss of productivity, but it will result in mid-term and long-term gains. To achieve this, in the short term, employees should be incentivized not according to the outcomes they produce, but for the ways they experimented with getting to the outcomes.
If the long-term plan feels hard to discern, this approach focuses on incremental changes rather than large wins. With this approach, once the future becomes clearer, your employees will be able to achieve more with less because they have had the time to find better ways to do their tasks than before. With this approach, they are at a minimum putting one foot in front of the other rather than standing still, paralyzed by the unknown.
Further reading: How To Create AI-Fluent Employees Through A Culture Of Curiosity
Principal Two: Focus on Resiliency and Flourishing
While many businesses may thrive in the era of AI, it is true that there are many organizations whose business and operating models must change. This also means that employees must also change, for the long-term health of the business, and for their immediate need to stay employed.
All of us should feel pride in the skills we have learned through years of work and life. However, this pride can turn into a reticence to try something new, if we feel it will undermine the excellence with which we have operated previously in our area of strength.
That being said, organizations that are brittle and cannot adopt change are the most likely to break. Employees must feel they are in an environment where they are allowed to make mistakes (known as “psychological safety”) during the pursuit of learning new ways of working. They must also understand that doing things imperfectly at first can provide a long-term flexibility that will enable themselves and their businesses to operate into the future.
During a period of upheaval, employees need to know that they are working toward a common good, even if the future organization looks nothing like the same organization, they thrived in previously. And they need to believe that the future organization will also allow them to thrive and flourish. As Laurie Bowman says in her book, Dealing with Uncertainty: The art and Science of Resilience and Decision-Making:
“One of the brain’s greatest strengths is how it adapts – especially when we’re dealing with uncertainty… The more we expose ourselves to uncertainty in small, manageable ways, the better we get at staying calm and thinking clearly under pressure. By taking small, calculated risks – like trying new skills or altering daily routines – we can incrementally boost our confidence.”
Further reading: 10 Strategies for Leading in Uncertain Times and How to Foster Psychological Safety When AI Erodes Trust on Your Team
Principal Three: Quiet the Fear, Engage Logic
Several years ago, the books that filled the shelves at Barnes and Noble often reflected stories of founders who had beaten the odds and built tremendous businesses through grit and determination. The same bookshelves are now filled with an abundance of books about how to avoid burnout, achieve personal balance and fulfillment in life and work, and avoid crippling anxiety. This reflects the broader direction our society was already headed, and is now only amplified with the unknowns that come with AI.
When we are filled with fear and anxiety, the part of our brain that gets engaged is the amygdala. Fear is how we protect ourselves from danger and serves a positive purpose when it keeps us from harm. But when fear becomes constant and the amygdala stays in charge, we rely less on the prefrontal cortex, the part of the brain responsible for executive function and decision-making.
When we operate out of a place of anxiety, we will focus on all the negative outcomes that could materialize. For example, an employee may think, “What if I can’t figure out AI and I lose my job?” Or a business owner may wonder not just about their own job if they can’t “figure out” AI, but about losing their entire business. Anxiety indeed! If we can shift our thinking away from the negative “what if’s” and into the possibilities (“What if I do master AI? What would be possible then? Where could I take my job, or this business?”) then we can release the amygdala’s grip on our emotions and shift thinking to our prefrontal cortex. This will allow us to think logically about tangible steps we can take to move forward, shifting us from a state of paralysis to a state of forward progress.
Further listening: What It Takes to Make Progress When the Future Feels Out of Control
Books for Further Reading
